The real dilemma on Syria: can the West go it alone?

Donnerstag, 31. Mai 2012

The real dilemma on Syria: can the West go it alone?

Day by day, the clash between Russia and the West over Syria grows more acrimonious. The massacre of the innocents in Houla has turned a simmering diplomatic disagreement into an escalating confrontation.

Vladimir Putin: opposition protesters are 'zeroes'

Vladimir Putin will almost certainly refuse to do the West's bidding

Behind the statements of Western officials lies one question: will the Kremlin now reappraise its stance and abandon President Bashar al-Assad? For all the rhetorical passion, however, this is not the real issue.

Vladimir Putin, fresh from regaining Russia's presidency and preparing for another long spell in power, will almost certainly refuse to do the West's bidding. His country's strategic interest in preserving Mr Assad's regime has not been changed by the latest bloodshed.

The reasons for Syria's importance in Mr Putin's eyes - ranging from its status as a base for Russian influence in the Middle East to its provision of a port for warships - are all too familiar.

One further illustration might serve to make the point: some 400 towns and cities across Russia exist only to provide workers for one local industry. Most are entirely dependent on making weapons. Losing Syria as a market for arms, with sales worth about Dollars 1 billion last year alone, would jeopardise the livelihoods of entire towns in Russia. So Mr Putin will probably remain implacable.

That leaves Western governments to grapple with the real dilemma. In 1999, they intervened in Kosovo in the face of furious opposition from Russia and without the authority of the United Nations Security Council. Are they prepared to do the same today over Syria?

By his actions, Mr Putin has raised the bar for the resolve that would be necessary to intervene. Not only must the West be prepared for the risks of military action, but its leaders would also have to shoulder the political burden of going to war without UN approval.

On Wednesday night in New York, Susan Rice, the American ambassador to the UN, raised the possibility of bypassing a Security Council logjammed by Russia. If the peace plan devised by Kofi Annan, the former UN secretary general, failed to curb the violence, then "members of this Council and members of the international community are left with the option only of having to consider whether they're prepared to take actions outside of the Annan plan and the authority of this Council," she said.

So far, no Western leader has talked about military action without UN backing. The reality of the situation is perhaps shown by the fact that Nato has not even laid plans for an operation in Syria.

All the focus on Russia provides a convenient alibi for Western governments. Despite the genuine outrage over Houla, the level of will required for military intervention does not exist.

Voice of the Gospel Christian Radio - Radio Stimme des Evangeliums

Donnerstag, 31. Mai 2012